Buy Gold Now? Tariff Rally Guide

Gold has just broken $5,200 per ounce—an all-time high that seemed unthinkable just two years ago. If you've been watching from the sidelines, you're now facing the hardest question in investing: Is it too late to buy, or is this just the beginning? Here's a decision framework for Singapore investors navigating record prices.

The Case for Buying Now (Despite Record Highs)

Let's address the elephant in the room: buying at all-time highs feels wrong. But here's why many investors are doing exactly that:

1. The Drivers Haven't Gone Away

Gold didn't reach $5,200 by accident. The forces driving this rally remain in place:

• Trade tensions showing no signs of resolution
• Fed rate cuts virtually certain, with 96% odds priced in
• Central banks buying gold at record pace
• Geopolitical risks multiplying
• US fiscal deficits and debt levels unsustainable long-term

Until these fundamentals change, gold has structural support.

2. Historical Precedent: All-Time Highs Aren't Sell Signals

Counter-intuitively, buying at all-time highs has often been profitable:

The pattern isn't consistent—sometimes highs marked tops, sometimes they preceded further gains. The key is the underlying environment, not just the price level.

3. Analyst Forecasts Point Higher

Major banks and analysts have revised gold forecasts upward:

• Goldman Sachs: $6,000 target by end of 2026
• Bank of America: $5,500-6,000 range
• UBS: $5,800 base case
• Citigroup: $6,500 bull case scenario

Forecasts aren't guarantees, but the professional consensus sees more upside than downside from current levels.

The Case for Waiting

Despite the bullish case, there are valid reasons for caution:

1. Pullbacks Are Normal

Even in strong bull markets, gold regularly pulls back 10-20%. After a nearly 100% gain in 12 months, a correction wouldn't be surprising:

• Support level 1: $5,000 (psychological round number)
• Support level 2: $4,800 (previous resistance turned support)
• Support level 3: $4,500 (deeper correction)

Patient buyers might get better entry points by waiting for profit-taking.

2. News-Driven Rallies Can Reverse

The current rally is heavily driven by tariff announcements. If:

• Trade negotiations resume successfully
• Tariffs are reduced or removed
• The Fed signals no rate cuts

Gold could give back gains quickly. The risk is real and immediate.

3. Currency Effects for SGD Investors

Singapore investors buy gold in SGD. If the USD weakens significantly against SGD:

• Gold in USD may rise
• But USD/SGD may fall
• Net SGD gold gains could be smaller than headlines suggest

Currency dynamics add a layer of complexity for local investors.

The Dollar-Cost Averaging Solution

For most investors, the answer isn't "buy now" or "wait"—it's dollar-cost averaging (DCA):

Instead of investing a lump sum at $5,200, spread purchases over time:

By spreading purchases, you reduce timing risk. If gold dips, you buy more ounces. If it rises, your earlier purchases are already gaining.

For more on this strategy, see our guide on timing vs. dollar-cost averaging.

What Happens to Gold After Tariff Announcements?

Looking at historical patterns:

• Immediate reaction: Spike higher on safe-haven buying (as we've seen)
• 1-4 weeks later: Often some profit-taking and consolidation
• Longer term: Depends on whether tensions escalate or resolve

The 2018-2019 US-China trade war saw gold rise from $1,200 to $1,550 over 18 months—with plenty of volatility along the way. Current tensions could follow a similar pattern.

How to Start Investing During Volatile Markets

If you're new to gold and overwhelmed by the current environment, here's a practical approach:

Step 1: Determine Your Target Allocation

Decide what percentage of your portfolio should be in gold. Most advisors recommend 5-15%. Be conservative if you're uncertain—you can always add more later.

Step 2: Calculate Your Position Size

If your portfolio is $100,000 and you target 10% gold allocation, that's $10,000 in gold.

Step 3: Divide Into Tranches

Split your target investment into 4-6 purchases over 3-6 months. This implements dollar-cost averaging automatically.

Step 4: Choose Your Format

For Singapore investors, UOB gold bars offer a convenient option with GST exemption. Consider 10g-100g bars for flexibility—see our guide on optimal bar sizes.

Step 5: Execute Systematically

Set calendar reminders for each purchase date. Don't let daily price moves or news headlines change your plan.

Singapore-Specific Considerations

For Singapore investors, keep these factors in mind:

• GST exemption: Investment-grade gold (99.5%+ purity) is GST-free
• No capital gains tax: Profits on gold sales are generally tax-free for individuals
• UOB pricing: Track live UOB prices which include bank premiums over spot
• Storage options: Home safe, bank safe deposit box, or professional vault storage
• Selling requirements: UOB now requires a current/savings account to sell gold back (as of March 2025)

Gold Price Forecast for 2026

While forecasts are inherently uncertain, here's a summary of major predictions:

Most analysts see more upside than downside from current levels, but significant risks remain.

Decision Framework Summary

Buy now if:

• You have no gold exposure and want to start building a position
• You believe trade/geopolitical tensions will persist or worsen
• You're comfortable with short-term volatility for long-term goals
• You plan to use dollar-cost averaging rather than lump sum

Wait if:

• You already have adequate gold allocation (5-15%)
• You're trying to time a short-term trade
• You can't afford to see your investment drop 20% temporarily
• You believe trade tensions will resolve quickly

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it too late to buy gold at $5,200?

Not necessarily. Major banks forecast $5,500-$6,000 targets. Focus on your target portfolio allocation rather than timing. Use dollar-cost averaging to reduce risk.

Should I wait for gold prices to drop?

Support exists at $4,800-$5,000, so pullbacks are possible. A hybrid approach—invest half now, set limit orders for half at lower prices—balances both concerns.

What happens to gold prices after tariff announcements?

Historically, gold rises during tariff escalations. If negotiations succeed, profit-taking can cause corrections. Trade unpredictability is precisely why timing is difficult.

How do I start investing in gold during volatile markets?

Start with small, regular purchases via dollar-cost averaging. Consider physical gold or a UOB gold savings account for systematic accumulation.

What is the gold price forecast for 2026?

Forecasts range from $5,400 (UBS) to $6,000 (Citi). See our detailed 2026 forecast analysis for comprehensive coverage.

Conclusion

"Should I buy gold now at $5,200?" doesn't have a universal answer. The decision depends on your current allocation, investment timeline, and conviction in the macro drivers.

What we can say with confidence: the forces behind gold's rally—trade wars, geopolitical tensions, rate cut expectations, and dollar weakness—remain in place. Whether gold goes to $6,000 or pulls back to $4,800 first, a disciplined approach using dollar-cost averaging reduces timing risk.

For Singapore investors, the combination of GST exemption, no capital gains tax, and access to physical gold through UOB and reputable dealers makes building a position practical. Start with your target allocation, spread purchases over time, and avoid emotional reactions to daily headlines.

The best time to buy gold was before this rally. The second-best time is today—if you do it right.